Brexit – successful confusion

That was quick. The EU has avoided any need for another meeting this month by spelling out the full timetable:

1. When current “deal” is not accepted next week, automatic extension till 12 April which provides only a couple of weeks for actual preparations to minimize damage from automatic “no deal” Brexit on that date.

This is calculated to maximize panic at prospects of crashing out unprepared and thus reduce numbers of Labour MPs from “Leave” constituencies who might have voted for May’s deal.

If the Tory Brexiteers were as stupid as people think it would influence them in the opposite direction by lifting their hopes for “no deal”.

However they already know that “no deal” won’t happen and many are still likely to humiliate themselves by voting for BRINO.

More importantly, it sidelines Corbyn’s waffle about alternative forms of BRINO and ensures rapid agreement on a long delay with participation in the EU elections. Anybody voting against that will be voting to crash out with no preparations so the vote will be overwhelming. This will end up with Brexit supporters in both major parties outvoted at elections centered on the issue of Brexit and will pave the way to referendum even if referendum is not adopted immediately.

2. When UK changes course to put forward new proposals (eg referendum) and decides to participate in European elections before 12 April the EU will offer a long extension.

3. In the highly unlikely event that the UK Parliament accepts the only deal available next week there will be an automatic further extension for actual exit on May 22 to finalize necessary legislation (or run around in panic reversing the decision). European Parliament will then be elected without continuing British obstruction.

Of course above is NOT the way they expressed it. Here is the actual text.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-summit-text-idUKKCN1R22MI

Here is the CNN report of that text:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/21/uk/brexit-delay-theresa-may-eu-gbr-intl/index.html

Here is the Financial Times doing its bit to maintain belief in the absurd idea that May might intend to crash out with no deal.

https://www.ft.com/content/c1bb68fa-4bed-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62

Here’s the Guardian insisting that she was just incompetently drifting rather than “exhausting every alternative” to staying in the EU:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/mays-appeal-falls-flat-as-eu-seizes-control-of-brexit-date

The only thing unclear is whether there will even be time wasted on a third vote to reject the deal, and preliminary vote to allow considering it yet again, given the urgency with which they will have to decide what to do next. My  guess is there will, just to humiliate the maximum number of Tory Brexiteers.

 

3 thoughts on “Brexit – successful confusion

  1. I did not explain in item 1 why “panic” would encourage Labour remainers to vote against the deal rather than for it.

    Point is actual vote will be either procedural or an amendment (eg to approve it “subject to referendum). Atmosphere of panic is not conducive to defying 3 line whip. Those who were threatening to do so were onlyy posturing to placate their “Leave” constituencies by saying they voted for BRINO to avoid “no deal”. The anger at May’s pretence “no deal” is still an option makes it ludicrous to maintain that pretence.

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  2. To further explain, I expect the number of Labour members voting for the deal to decline since they now have the prospect of a “softer Brexit” supported by the Labour party than the “Tory Brexit” as an explanation to offer to their “Leave” constuencies.

    But of course that cannot be resolved by April 12 so must result in long extension with participation in US elections, which is the fork in the road away from actual Brexit.

    PS Currently looks like Tory Brexiteers are shifting back from accepting deal based on knowing that there won’t be a no deal Brexit and the result of their votes will instead by no Brexit. Not much point pretending they still hope for no deal but humiliating themselves is not a good look for the European elections in which Tories will be facing defeat by more rabidly pro-Brexit parties.

    So actually holding the vote looks less likely as the only point was to get more of them to humiliate themselves.

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  3. Typo “US elections” –> EU elections

    “Typo” –> “bizarre neural misfiring from following news on Trump and on Brexit”

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