Notes on Trump – 7

This is the first article I have seen explaining that Trump’s focus on Republican primaries is working.

Still does not discuss likelihood that MOST GOP incumbents will face Trumpist challengers whether or not openly backed by Trump, that many of these will be successful and likely outcome is a large Trumpist party in House of Representatives (including both newbies and intimidated incumbents as well as pure opportunists).

Does mention the Democrat shambles and implied possibility of Democrats not having a majority after mid-terms.

Does not mention that even if a Democrat majority is likely the four way split would be favourable to Trump getting populist measures through conducive to an economic and political climate that could result in a second term.

No mention of large wing of Democrats convergence towards anti-globalist and isolationist policies that would jointly have far more impact in creating a climate for real damage by implementation than the gestures towards such policies that Trump has been able to make so far with no party supporting them in Congress, let alone two.

Still this is as clear a shift towards agreement with my basic analysis as I have seen so far:

1) https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/why-gop-is-stuck-with-trump-commentary.html

I’ll add some other background related links below without explanation. Don’t have time now to include in a coherent post but may be useful to anyone interested in the meantime.

2) http://thehill.com/homenews/house/348629-gop-rep-trump-cant-bully-senators-this-isnt-the-apprentice

3) http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/28/trump-karl-rove-2018-elections-242074

4) https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/why-people-still-support-trump

5) http://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-damaged-democracy-silicon-valley-will-finish-it-off

6) https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-looks-to-2020-but-a-more-immediate-peril-looms-democratic-control-and-impeachment-power-in-the-house/2017/08/25/c4fe5046-89dd-11e7-a50f-e0d4e6ec070a_story.html?utm_term=.d08057a273eb

7) http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/08/25/trump-voters-cnn-panel-dont-mind-his-charlottesville-response

8) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/24/trump-is-starting-to-tear-the-gop-apart/?utm_term=.f63e93e15fc7

9) https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/no-he-wont-back-down/538125/

10) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/26/what-if-trump-ditched-the-gop/

11) http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/348048-the-memo-trump-allies-say-he-needs-a-gop-scalp

12) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/26/donald-trumps-attacks-on-republican-politicians

13) http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/08/the-media-cant-help-but-help-trump.php

14) http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/21/trump-republicans-loyalty-arizona-241861

15) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/22/trumps-own-pollster-just-confirmed-his-base-is-weakening/?utm_term=.2e92c7ab75d7

16) http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/08/trump_s_bigoted_base_by_the_numbers.html

17) http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/why-so-many-people-still-support-donald-trump-20170829-gy68sl

18) http://time.com/4386335/donald-trump-trade-speech-transcript/

5 thoughts on “Notes on Trump – 7

  1. Trump job approval still just under 80% among Republicans, mid-eighties among conservative Republicans (gallup). Decline seems to have stabilized but not recovered. Still more than enough to intimidate and replace far more unpopular GOP incumbents.

    Democrat and Republican Congressional leaders both even less approved of than Trump:

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/348660-voters-deeply-disapprove-of-trump-house-leaders-poll

    19. Now that all hopes are placed on “obstruction of justice” (with little pretense of an actual “Russia thing” there is a flurry of interest in earlier draft of letter sacking Comey.

    NYT report mentions:

    “Mr. McGahn [the White Counsel] gave Mr. Miller [a top Trump adviser who worked on the “early draft” letter] a marked-up copy of the letter, highlighting several sections that he believed needed to be removed.

    “Mr. McGahn met again that same day with Mr. Trump and told him that if he fired Mr. Comey, the Russia investigation would not go away. Mr. Trump told him, according to senior administration officials, that he understood that firing the F.B.I. director might extend the Russia investigation, but that he wanted to do it anyway.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/us/politics/trump-comey-firing-letter

    Australia’s Trumpest Andrew Bolt has noted that this undercuts the claims Trump fired Comey to obstruct Russia investigation.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/trump-knew-firing-comey-wouldnt-end-any-investigation/news-story/7f80484b98b5d3fd1fef9fb59e0ac793

    Actually Bolt still hasn’t noticed that the idea sacking FBI Director would shorten rather than prolong and intensify the focus on Russia is one that could ONLY appeal to the media idiots who could persuade themselves that they weren’t helping Trump achieve his goal of prolonging and intensitying the absurdity based on their theory that everything Trump does (including defeating both major parties and the media by getting elected) is bizarrely stupid like Trump’s supporters and they can demonstrate how clever they are by sneering.

    Trump said at the time, on air in an NBC interview, that he knew it would extend the Russia inquiry. This was duly reported at the time that he admitted it wasn’t just about Clinton’s emails and was connected in his mind with the Russia inquiry and therefore an admission that he was trying to obstruct justice.

    Now the media idiots are confirming that the special counsel investigating obstruction of justice has evidence that Trump knew and therefore was not obstructing.

    But they (including Bolt) cannot admit that Trump WANTED them to obsess about Russia (which goes nowhere and helps keep his base mobilized). Bolt presumably would not want to admit it any more than Trump would, but I see no evidence that he actually gets it. The anti-Trumpists simply could not wrap their heads around it as it would confirm that they are cluelessly helping Trump.

    20. A less bizarre example of media shooting themselves in the foot is coverage of Trump intending to end in six months Obama’s program allowing “Dreamer” undocumented immigrants who arrived as children to remain. This is clearly intended to have Congress resolve the issue by legislation which will now happen – thus keeping Trump’s promise to the nativists in his base while simultaneous moving towards comprehensive immigration reform.

    Naturally the reporting breathlessly focuses on the danger that hundreds of thousands might be deported instead of on the reality that Republicans in Congress will now have to join with Democrats in taking responsibility. That is just normal stupid media politicking, in misunderstanding and misrepresenting everything that happens. It is nowhere near as bizarre as the Russia conspiracy theory stuff.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/03/trump-dreamers-immigration-daca-immigrants-242301

    21. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/09/01/paul_ryan_orrin_hatch_support_daca.html

    The North Korean thermonuclear test is naturally enough attracting attention.

    So far we have been told that their leader is crazier than Trump and had threatened to strike Guam with missiles, Trump is crazy enough to start a nuclear war, Australia faces an “existential threat” from North Korean ICBMs and should start buying (non-existant) defence against ICBMs.

    My guess is that Trump will invite Kim Jong-Il over for a hamburger.

    “Foreign Policy” however is suggesting that U.S. threats to attack North Korea are real and the risk of war has significantly increased:

    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/04/james-mattis-just-out-trumped-trump-on-north-korea/

    Some more on the now openly looming primary battles:

    22. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/01/charlie-dent-republican-moderates-primary-challenges-trump-242260

    23. This one is reporting the open establishment of local Trumpist organizations to take over the GOP as efforts by the GOP to assimilate Trumpists:

    http://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt–politics/can-florida-trump-clubs-migrate-support-for-trump-support-for-gop/ngni3hQrRVeQJ3XIcbtetK/amp.html

    24. Some anti-trumpists are starting to get it:
    http://www.kansas.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/article170764867.html

    25. Others are not:
    http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/348840-opinion-the-patriot-left-is-beating-trump-in-battle-of

    I really don’t see how the Democrats could possibly remain a single party with this sort of bilge.

    26. Naturally reporters think Trump is holding rallies in marginal States to pressure Democrat incumbents. Cannot wrap minds around the fact he is focussed on Republican primaries.
    http://www.myarklamiss.com/news/politics/trump-plans-travel-to-pressure-vulnerable-democratic-senators/802956829

    27. The other great hope of the anti-Trumpists is removing him for incapacity as “mentally ill”.

    https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/2/16239892/allen-frances-twilight-american-sanity-goldwater-rule-trump-personality-disorder

    Nice response from the authority on narcissitic personality disorder that this is an abuse of psychiatry and his narcism is not a mental illness but one of many good reasons for wanting him out. Actual mental illness is not a disqualification from Presidency.

    28. Here’s wapo explaining that Trump is entirely focussed on his base, at the expense of widening support, in detail, with lots of evidence. But the only mention of primaries is in context of getting Trumpists to turn up and vote against Democrats. Absolutely oblivious to them turning up in primaries to vote against incumbent Republicans.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-action-after-action-trump-appeals-primarily-to-his-dwindling-base/2017/09/03/a3ab9bf4-8f57-11e7-91d5-ab4e4bb76a3a_story.html?utm_term=.453e9057efd1

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  2. 29. Two items showing some insight:

    Reasonable explanation of how Trump is able to maintain coalition with evangelicals who are so important in GOP politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/05/donald-trump-why-do-evangelicals-support-him

    30. Nice sarcastic item from liberal satirist site “The Onion” on how brilliantly persuasive the “resistance” are being:

    http://www.theonion.com/article/former-conservative-recalls-belittling-tirade-coll-56825

    31. As expected Trump is now relying on Democrat votes for the huge deficits he needs. Analysts are duly bewildered that he is doing so in a way that maximizes difficulties for GOP incumbents at 2018 midterms by forcing them to either annoy GOP primary voters or abandon their policies in voting dramas closer to the midterms. Just cannot grasp that he is out to replace GOP incumbents with Trumpists in primaries and that he needs big deficits for economic climate conducive to second term in 2020. Presumably cannot grasp it because too difficult to acknowledge that these “analysts” have been actively helping him.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/06/trump-ignores-republicans-on-democrats-debt-limit-and-harvey-funds-plan

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/09/06/does-trump-just-hate-the-republicans/?utm_term=.3dd168a89f8b

    32. After noticing Trumps total focus on mobilizing his base regardless of negative impact on broader support Vox seriously tries to understand it. After eliminating other explanations the article finally comes up with…. Russia.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/5/16233568/trump-approval-unpopular

    You see it intimidates GOP incumbents from impeaching him.

    True enough and for people whose lives revolve around fantasies that the “resistance” strategy for impeachment makes sense. It was easy to just stop there.

    But how hard would it be to take the next step and notice that Trumps strategy also helps him establish his own party by replacing GOP opponents in the primaries whether or not they are so stupid as to try and impeach him?

    Very hard apparantly. Implies acknowledging that the “analysts” have been actively helping Trump with their Russia fantasies etc that only mobilize his base.

    33. Meanwhile it is becoming VERY hard to maintain rage over Trumpist nativism by pretending he will deport millions. After only a couple of days of outrage over ending the “Dreamers” hopes of staying in USA it seems to have already sunk in that actual result will be that Congress has to pass legislation that GOP rejected under Obama, this time with GOP support added to Democrat support. Watch for more moves towards comprehensive immigration reform still making nativist gestures that appeal to (parts of) his base.

    34. BTW I accurately predicted the easy clean debt raise “breeze” in “Notes on Trump 6” thread:

    “August 17, 2017 at 10:39 am
    “Meanwhile I am guessing their next celebrated Democrat “victory” will be within the next couple of weeks raising the debt ceiling without the usual drama about cutting future spending, thus defeating Trump’s tea party/koch brothers opponents and preparing to give him the deficit he needs.”

    https://c21stleft.com/2017/07/28/notes-on-trump-6/#comment-839

    Yep, clean raise should be a breeze.”

    https://c21stleft.com/2017/07/28/notes-on-trump-6/#comment-857

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  3. Arthur you indeed were correct about the clean raise which is the sensible decision. This raise is a kicking of the can down the road for 3 months. Congress denied Obama a more modest infrastructure spend than Trump will seek, it will be interesting to see if Trump can get the necessary money.

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  4. Yes, it will be interesting to see. My expectation is that Dems will continue celebrating victories over GOP in December, as will Trump (perhaps pretending otherwise).

    eg They could fund much bigger infrastructure than GOP would while also restoring budget cuts that Trump pretends to want and increasing subsidies to healthcare while refusing funds for wall. ALL of that would help keep Trump’s base mobilized to replace GOP incumbents in 2018 but Dems seem to already think they have defeated Trump in 2020 and not noticed that big deficits are what he is counting on.

    It wasn’t “Congress” that denied funds. It was GOP.

    Media still perplexed about Trump doing things that undermine GOP chances in 2018 despite how obvious it has become that Trump needs to defeat them in primaries and fact Trump would not be much worse off if Democrats gain House majority since they are more likely to give him deficits, infrastructure , healthcare improvements etc and might even be stupid enough to impeach him without a case or a GOP climate that could conceivably get two thirds in Senate.

    Dems certainly show every sign of continuing to rely on outrage rather than economic policy. Sanders is the only politician with majority support so a Dem split before 2020 would be as hard to avoid as a GOP split and Trump could win in 4 way split House of Reps even if not in Electoral College.

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